Balance Proposal regarding Solo Ladder
Summary
Most players stall at rungs 4–5. Four things combine to cause this: Gambit lands far below its stated odds, mobs appear to out-roll players far more often than equal dice should allow, minions add a lot of effective HP and threat, and mob stats jump about 50% per rung while rewards don't keep up. Rungs nobody can reach don't add content. They add frustration. The proposals below keep the ladder challenging but make each climb a fair gamble.
1. Gambit success rate
Problem: Gambit's stated condition (2d10 ≥ 12) gives a 45% hit rate: 45 of the 100 possible rolls total 12 or more. Players report landing roughly 10–15% in practice, including miss streaks of 7–8 in a row (at 45%, that happens about 1.5% and 0.8% of the time) and dodges on rolls that succeeded. That's a gap of about 30 percentage points between the tooltip and what players experience.
Proposals:
- Investigate and explain the gap. Either the RNG or hit logic has a bug, or there are modifiers (dodge, roll penalties, mob effects) that the combat log doesn't show. Both need fixing: the bug by correcting it, the modifiers by showing them.
- Make the damage steadier without raising average damage. Lowering the threshold and the multiplier together keeps average Gambit damage the same while cutting down on long dry spells:
- ≥12 (current): 45% hit chance × 5.0 multiplier = 2.25× average damage per cast
- ≥11: 55% hit chance × 4.1 multiplier = 2.25× average damage per cast
- ≥10 (pre-nerf): 64% hit chance × 3.5 multiplier = 2.24× average damage per cast
This won't make Gambit stronger overall. It makes it less swingy, which is where most of the frustration comes from.
- Add a pity mechanic. Each missed Gambit gives +1 to the next Gambit roll, and the bonus resets on a hit. Four misses in a row would drop from about 9% to about 2.5%, and a 7-miss streak would become essentially impossible.
- Handle dodge more fairly. Either a successful Gambit roll can't be dodged, or dodge is checked before the dice. Clearing the threshold and then being dodged feels like being penalized twice.
2. Mob rolls and parity
Problem: The combat log shows both sides' rolls, and players regularly see the mob out-roll them in around 8 of 10 rounds. If both sides roll the same 2d10, the mob should win about 47% of contests (about 7% are ties), and winning 8 or more out of 10 should happen only about 3.5% of the time. One fight like that is bad luck. The same pattern across many players and many fights suggests the rolls aren't equal.
Proposals:
- Show any mob roll bonuses from level, skills or passives directly in the log and tooltips. A visible disadvantage feels like a challenge. A hidden one feels rigged.
- Audit the roll distribution in the combat logs for players versus mobs. Players can supply log screenshots to help.
3. Minions
Problem: On rungs 2–3 a mob already has about the same HP as the player, and a minion adds more health and threat on top. There are nine minion types, several of which (Leech, Mender, Broodmother, Champion) change the fight a lot. Players also have 4–6 skills against mobs with 4–5 skills, 2–3 passives, and a skill steal every turn.
Proposals:
- Make minions budget-neutral. When minions spawn, subtract their HP from the mob's pool. The fight becomes more tactical without getting longer.
- Gate minions by rung. No guaranteed minions on rungs 1–3. Threat-type minions (Leech, Broodmother, Champion) appear from rung 4 onward, and Champion from rung 7.
- Cap the number of minions at once, for example 2 through rung 6 and 3 after that, including extra spawns from Broodmother.
- Reward minion kills with a small loot bonus per kill, so clearing them feels like earning something instead of paying a tax.
- Limit skill steal to once per fight, or let Guard or Barrier block it. Also, telegraph that mob is going to steal x action BEFORE the round, not during the round. Stealing every turn while minions are also active stacks too much in the mob's favor.
4. Rung scaling and rewards
Problem: Mob HP goes up about 50% per rung, sometimes 2x - 2.5x (for example, 400K to 600K from rung 3 to 4, sometimes 300K to 700K), minion stats grow with it, and player power doesn't. A failed climb keeps 50% of banked loot, so climbing is only worth it when:
next-rung multiplier ≥ 0.5 / (win chance) + 0.5
That means each rung needs at least this multiplier to be worth attempting:
- 90% win chance: 1.06×
- 70% win chance: 1.21×
- 50% win chance: 1.5×
- 40% win chance: 1.75×
- 30% win chance: 2.17×
- 20% win chance: 3.0×
On rungs 1–3, where win chances are high, the 50% safety net makes climbing easy to justify. Around rung 5, win chances drop to around 30%, so each rung would need to more than double the loot just to break even. Stat growth pushes win chances down faster than rewards go up, so stopping at rung 4–5 is the rational choice and higher rungs go unplayed.
Proposals:
- Show the mob HP for the next rung, so players can make informed decisions about climbing.
- Smooth the curve to about 15–20% stat growth per rung, with larger jumps only at milestone rungs (5 and 10) that also give milestone rewards.
- Tune the multipliers so that climbing stays at least break-even under the formula above for a well-geared player.
- Add permanent checkpoints every 3 rungs that protect loot beyond the 50% net.
- Set target clear rates. For an appropriately geared player, aim for roughly 90% at rung 1, 50% at rung 5, and 15–20% at rung 10. Top rungs can be hard and aspirational, but they should be reachable for someone who has earned it.
Appreciate if you guys can also share your thoughts and contribute to the topic.